Cardano risks further losses as whale holdings decline

Key takeaways

Cardano (ADA) consolidates below $0.20 on Monday after losing 21% in October, with support holding around $0.1894.
Large investors holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have reduced their share of circulating supply from 38.03% to 37.45%.
Technical indicators remain bearish, with a break below $0.1894 potentially exposing ADA to further declines toward $0.1712 and $0.1537.

Cardano (ADA) is struggling to regain momentum on Monday, trading below $0.20 after a difficult October that wiped 21% off its value.

The cryptocurrency has managed to hold above the $0.1894 support level, but declining whale holdings and weakening derivatives activity suggest that buyers are still reluctant to return.

ADA has been relatively stable since Thursday’s nearly 8% selloff, although there is little evidence of a meaningful recovery taking shape.

On-chain data from Santiment shows that large Cardano investors have reduced their holdings over the past month, while CoinGlass figures point to a noticeable decline in futures Open Interest.

Interestingly, Cardano is attracting more attention on social media despite the subdued market activity. Whether that attention translates into renewed buying demand remains uncertain.

Cardano whale holdings decline despite rising social interest

Cardano has seen a sharp increase in online attention following reports that neither ADA nor Midnight-related tokens were stolen during the recent Binance hack.

According to Santiment, Cardano’s social dominance reached 2.49% on Monday, its highest reading since late June.

Social dominance measures how frequently an asset is mentioned in cryptocurrency discussions relative to other digital assets. A rising reading generally indicates that more traders and investors are talking about the cryptocurrency.

However, the increased attention has not translated into stronger buying activity among Cardano’s largest holders.

Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA now control approximately 37.45% of the circulating supply, down from 38.03% last month.

The decline suggests that some large investors have been reducing their exposure rather than accumulating more tokens during the recent price weakness.

Whale activity is closely watched because large holders can influence market liquidity and price movements, particularly when broader demand is already weak.

Cardano’s supply in profit has also fallen sharply, dropping from 28.36% to 14.77%. This means a significantly smaller portion of the circulating supply is currently held at a profit, reflecting the impact of ADA’s recent decline. The metric alone, however, does not establish how much of the movement was caused by profit-taking.

If large holders continue trimming their positions, Cardano could struggle to recover from October’s losses.

The weakness in Cardano’s spot market is also evident in its derivatives activity. Data from CoinGlass shows that ADA futures Open Interest has declined to approximately $419 million, compared with $450 million last week.

That represents a drop of roughly 11%, indicating that traders have been closing positions faster than new contracts are being opened.

Open Interest measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled or closed.

A decline in Open Interest often points to reduced market participation or a broader unwinding of leveraged positions.

In Cardano’s case, the contraction comes alongside falling prices and declining whale holdings, suggesting that traders remain cautious about taking fresh positions.

The combination of weakening derivatives activity and reduced accumulation by large holders leaves ADA without an obvious source of buying momentum.

A sustained recovery in Open Interest, accompanied by stronger prices, could provide an early indication that traders are becoming more willing to take risks.

Cardano price prediction: ADA faces bearish pressure below $0.20

Cardano continues to trade below the psychological $0.20 level on Monday, with its daily chart showing that sellers remain in control.

ADA is trading beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2179 and its 200-day EMA at $0.2408.

Both moving averages are acting as overhead resistance, making it difficult for buyers to establish a sustained recovery.

The cryptocurrency has also slipped below a previously rising support trendline near $0.2019.

That breakdown is significant because a former support level can become resistance once the price falls beneath it.

Unless ADA manages to reclaim the trendline, further recovery attempts could attract renewed selling pressure.

Momentum indicators offer little encouragement for buyers. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 31, approaching the oversold threshold of 30.

Although an RSI near oversold territory can sometimes precede a short-term rebound, it also reflects the strength of the recent selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reinforcing the bearish momentum visible on the daily chart.

Taken together, the indicators suggest that ADA has yet to establish a convincing bullish reversal.

The immediate focus for Cardano traders is the $0.1894 support level, which corresponds to the August 30 low.

ADA has managed to defend this area despite its recent losses, but another wave of selling could put the level under pressure.

A decisive daily close below $0.1894 would weaken the short-term technical outlook and potentially open the door for a decline toward $0.1712, the August 18 low.

If sellers maintain control, the next significant support lies around $0.1537, a level previously tested on July 27.