Bitcoin Q3 Strength Faces a Tougher Q4 Test
Bitcoin just delivered its second-best Q3 in history, while Ethereum posted its best Q3 ever. Sounds like the market is back. Maybe. But Q4 still has plenty to prove.
The problem is history isn’t exactly comforting. Bitcoin ended Q4 red in both 2024 and 2025. Ethereum also had a red Q4 in 2024, while its 2025 quarter was barely positive. So, no, a strong Q3 doesn’t guarantee another green quarter.
Bitcoin Q3 Rally Needs Fresh Liquidity Now
There is, however, an interesting liquidity signal emerging. RugaResearch said in a CryptoQuant post that USDT’s 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, its first reading above zero in more than three months.
On a monthly basis, USDT supply increased about $450 million. That’s positive, but don’t get carried away. The number remains small compared with the $5.7 billion hole seen earlier.
The 60-day reading bottomed at -$5.7 billion on July 13. Its 30-day average hit -$5.4 billion on July 29 before climbing every day since.
USDT Supply Is Recovering, But Slowly
However, there’s an important catch. Of the $541 million improvement during the final three days, only around $17 million came from new minting. Most of the increase came from early-August burns dropping out of the calculation. Still, the underlying trend has improved.
Bitcoin climbed from roughly $64,000 to $83,700 during the same stretch, even while the 60-day USDT change remained negative. That means the move happened without stablecoin growth supporting it.
The Zero Line Could Become Q4’s Key Signal
Now comes the interesting part. If USDT minting continues, additional liquidity could support the existing trend.
It’s still early, though. The 30-day average remains at -$564 million. The number to watch is zero. Bitcoin’s Q3 was impressive, but Q4 may need liquidity to prove the momentum can continue.
Was this writing helpful?
Story Ends Here
Trust with CoinPedia:
CoinPedia has been delivering accurate and timely cryptocurrency and blockchain updates since 2017. All content is created by our expert panel of analysts and journalists, following strict Editorial Guidelines based on E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness). Every article is fact-checked against reputable sources to ensure accuracy, transparency, and reliability. Our review policy guarantees unbiased evaluations when recommending exchanges, platforms, or tools. We strive to provide timely updates about everything crypto & blockchain, right from startups to industry majors.
Investment Disclaimer:
All opinions and insights shared represent the author’s own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
Sponsored and Advertisements:
Sponsored content and affiliate links may appear on our site. Advertisements are marked clearly, and our editorial content remains entirely independent from our ad partners.
Read the Next News
